Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which largely discusses why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you wish to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group could be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is absolutely playing a part. You're simply playing the portions. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to end up being the very first Canadian team considering that Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the money has can be found in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) talks to media throughout a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would anticipate that to most likely continue," Cipollini said. "I think we'll most likely take a little bit more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I believe we will wind up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not buy the Oilers must be favored.


"You do not see rematches too typically in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you always ask yourself the apparent question: Are these 2 groups better or worse than they were last year? I 'd state Florida is a better version of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) a little even worse than in 2015, specifically when you take a look at no Zach Hyman readily available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter team than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him a possibility to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they truly going to offer McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite due to the fact that of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they might provide it to him here, but that's something to see as the video games start. If there is a Florida player that isn't truly standing out ... there is a real life where it might be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been considered as a weakness on the lineup, a reputation that seemed sealed when he was benched 2 video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major factor Edmonton is still playing. He has allowed one or absolutely no objectives in five of his past seven starts, 3 of them nothings.


Another excellent run in the internet might put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually informed you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its third consecutive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness could lastly reach the Panthers. Or they could just be on a heater having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics point to a Panthers championship and though either outcome would be great with Caesars, a Florida victory would be better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "Last year was a bit tougher due to the fact that more people liked Florida, but individuals are everything about this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously might go in either case and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a chance to go six or seven video games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov hoists the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP, File)